Ecommerce Agency Confidence Index: April 2025 Edition

The Ecommerce Agency Confidence Index (EACI) slid again in April, landing at 216, the lowest reading since we began tracking in January 2024. That’s a hair below March’s 220 (-1.8 % MoM) but it caps an 18.8 % drop since the year opened at 266.

What that means in plain English:

• Free-fall paused, not reversed. March felt like an elevator shaft; April is more a slow slide. The bottom may be in sight, but no one’s calling a bounce yet.
  
  
• 42-point gulf from the November high. Peak-season exuberance has been squeezed out by tariffs, ad-cost spikes, and a cautious Q2 planning cycle.
  
  
• Year-over-year reality check. April 2024 printed 237; we’re now 8.9 % lower, showing that today’s anxiety isn’t just seasonality, it might be structural.

April 2025: Confidence crawls back, but no one’s popping champagne

After March’s record-low reading, April feels like the first deep breath after a sprint. Confidence nudged upward—think “out of the basement, now standing on the front porch.” Brands are still jumpy about tariffs and rising ad costs, yet they’re loosening the purse strings just enough to test growth plays heading into Q2.

Note: This survey ran 1 – 7 April 2025, a few weeks after Trump’s tariff headlines rattled March respondents. The calmer news cycle may explain some of the rebound you’ll see below.

Marketing Budgets: A tiny uptick beats flat-line

Most answers slid from the dead-center 5 into the 5 – 6 band. Translation: “still cautious, but we found the unfreeze button.” Roughly 31 % of agencies report bigger budgets versus 24 % last month.

“Our clients are adapting budgets cautiously but lean toward outsourcing for expertise. Despite price sensitivity, we expect strong revenue growth and remain confident in ecommerce’s promising future.”
— Ahmed Elghobashy, Simplix Innovations

Ecommerce App Spend: Trim the fat, feed the winners

Spend is effectively flat: brands killed off “fun but fluffy” apps in Q1 and are now doubling down on anything that drives AOV or retention. Tool vendors that prove ROI stay; everyone else lives on month-to-month licenses.

“We’re seeing US clients dial back on agency spend as market uncertainty deepens. With Trump’s new tariff policies stirring economic tension, many brands are shifting to a more cautious, ROI-driven approach, focusing only on essential, high-impact initiatives that deliver real value.”
— Olivier Lambret, Shopify-agency founder

Price Sensitivity: Dial now set to ‘6-ish and squinting’

Median ticked up to 6.1 / 10. The curve’s shoulders fattened at 8-9, signalling more “prove it or lose it” conversations. Agencies that bundle performance tiers or rev-share models will dodge the red-pen edits.

“We’re seeing our In Social clients stick with, and invest with us as we start planning for BFCM - eek yes, we’re already planning! While the tariffs and the economic uncertainty is keeping us all on alert, we’re still bringing a positive ROAS through our ad spend and lifecycle marketing, so there’s no reason to slow down. Our clients are keeping an eye on their inventory and supply chain to ensure they are well equipped for the holiday season, but nothing concerning has to come to light… yet! In terms of net new client acquisition, we’re seeing a slowdown of leads coming to us, but our strong tech partnerships are keeping the warm leads coming our way. It seems like brands are still ready to spend and invest as long as it’s with the right agency.”

— Jess Grossman, Founder & CEO, In Social, a Shopify Plus agency

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In-House vs. Outsource: Agencies get a second look

The pendulum swings back: 54 % of brands say they’ll outsource more work over the next quarter. Speed, niche expertise, and AI-powered execution top the shopping list.

““The next 6 months in ecommerce are wide open for those who move with clarity, not noise. While most brands are scrambling to hire in-house or blindly outsource, the smartest ones are leaning into agentic AI and incubation models like MOTIF’s where strategy, execution, and tech converge without the chaos. We’re not just optimistic, we’re positioned to build the future while others are still hiring for it. Why hire ten people when one AI and a real partner can outthink, outbuild, and outconvert them? That’s why MOTIF isn’t an agency. We incubate. We invest. We grow with skin in the game.”
— Ash Ome, MOTIF

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Six-Month Revenue Outlook: Guarded optimism with wider spread

Median forecast sits at +18 %, but the range is stretching: top-quartile agencies dream of +40 %, while a nervous minority prepare for single-digit shrinkage. Execution speed remains the divide.

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Overall Optimism: Off the floor, not yet through the ceiling

April’s optimism score bounced from 5.2 → 5.9. The mood has shifted from “batten down the hatches” to “okay, maybe we sail after all”—but one rough headline could wipe the smile.

“Clients seem to have moved past the initial shock at the start of the year and are beginning to prepare and invest again, a clear sign that entrepreneurs are becoming more resilient to political uncertainty.”
— Stefan Chiriacescu, eCommerce Today

"Tariffs have rocked the ecom market in the last few weeks with many businesses feeling caught out and consumers left confused. Trump has always been clear about tariffs and won't be backing down anytime soon! The brands and agencies that will survive are those who are able to duck and move quickly and adapt."
— AJ Saunders, Audacious Commerce