The Ecommerce Agency Confidence Index continued to drift lower in Q3 2025. Budgets edged down again, app-stack spend held steady, and outlook cooled versus both last quarter and last year. Price sensitivity stayed high (a headwind for closes and renewals) and the tilt toward outsourcing grew, favoring flexible, project-based work over permanent hires.

On paper, the moves are modest. In practice, the message is blunt: brands are past firefighting and deep in “prove it or lose it” mode. They’re keeping tools that earn their keep, pushing harder on fees and terms, and signing shorter, outcome-tied scopes. The market isn’t accelerating; it’s asking for sharper ROI and faster evidence before it commits.

How to read the charts

• Purple line = level (0–10). 5 equals no change, <5 = contraction, >5 = expansion.
• Yellow line = % change vs previous quarter 
• Price sensitivity: higher = worse for conversions
• Treat trend direction as the signal; avoid over-weighting a single quarter’s % swing.

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Key Insights

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Marketing Budgets: Continued Pressure

We asked agencies: Have your customers increased or reduced their marketing budgets in Q3 compared to Q2?. We then compared the results with prior surveys.

Marketing budgets dipped again this quarter, averaging 4.64 on a 0–10 scale. This marks a small but persistent contraction in available spend. Agencies report longer decision cycles and more procurement oversight as brands focus on immediate ROI rather than experimentation.

“In Q3 2025, we saw brands become far more cautious with budgets, prioritizing cost reduction and increasing profit margins. Advertising costs continue to rise, and the biggest players are flooding channels with an avalanche of ads. This is squeezing smaller businesses across our U.S. and European client base. We expect a fiercely competitive Q4, so we’re doubling down on customer experience and lifecycle automation (email, triggered journeys, and onsite personalization) to help our Shopify store owners protect margins and grow.” 

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Stefan Chiriacescu, CEO & Ecommerce Today - Shopify Plus Agency

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Ecommerce App Spend: Plateaued

We asked agencies: Have your customers increased or reduced their ecommerce app spend in Q3 compared to last quarter?. We then compared the results with prior surveys.

Budgets for ecommerce apps held steady at 4.73, nearly unchanged from Q2. Merchants appear to be maintaining essentials rather than adding tools; the % line’s swings reflect small quarter-to-quarter base moves, not a re-acceleration in spend.

Marketing budgets and app spend largely held steady, with clients prioritising measurable ROI and conversion-focused projects. We're seeing a slight shift toward selective outsourcing for specialised skills rather than broad in-house hiring. Price sensitivity has increased modestly, so our focus remains on delivering clear impact and flexible engagement models that drive lifetime value."

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Ahmed Elghobashy, CEO at Simplix Innovations

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Price Sensitivity: More Pushback From Clients

We asked agencies: On a scale of 0 to 10, how price sensitive have your customers been towards spending on your agency services in Q3?. We then compared the results with prior surveys.

Price sensitivity remained high at 6.27. In this index, that is a headwind: higher values mean greater pushback on pricing and scope, not improvement. Agencies report an uptick in requests for shorter retainers, performance-based contracts, and clearer ROI justification.

Since In Social’s founding 10 years ago - and the slight chaos in early 2020 - Clients are the most price sensitive that they have ever been. Despite us bringing in consistent, very profitable (and attributable) results, they are starting to change their perception of the value of an agency. Why? AI. We knew it was coming, but it is here. Clients across the board are making the broad assumption that every agency is using AI to do the work, which means the work is less valuable.

They’re almost equating AI to the same thing as hiring a cheap “overseas” agency, expecting to pay pennies on the dollar - which makes no sense. We at In Social are leveraging AI, but we are using it in a way to add efficiencies to the “hand work” and allowing us to put time into the “brain work,” which is the true value that we provide. Will the AI bubble burst, and bring perception back to actual reality? We can only hope!”

Jess Grossman, Founder & CEO,  In Social

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Outsourcing vs In-house: Modest Outsourcing Shift

We asked agencies: Are your customers more likely to outsource work to agencies, or hire in-house in the coming months?. We then compared the results with prior surveys.

At 6.27, the likelihood of brands outsourcing work rather than hiring internally rose slightly. The upward trend suggests preference for specialized, elastic scopes (audits, pilots, channel projects) rather than long, fixed retainers.

“We’ve noticed a drift towards in-house (UK) and many startups with a more DIY mindset. The mainstream Shopify TV ads at work, perhaps? We’re getting enquiries from startups who imagined an easier ride building an effective Shopify website. To address this we’re looking at startup support packages for those with a solid business plan. 

Our larger established clients are seeing good growth, though, and we get a sense of them investing more in-house for the Shopify management side of things. Time will tell how that works out as I see non-specialists doing specialist work.”

Steve Turnbull, Founder at Webcetera.co.uk

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6-Month Revenue Outlook: Softer Projections

We asked agencies: What will your agency's revenue look like 6 months from now?. We then compared the results with prior surveys.

The 6-month revenue outlook declined to 5.91, signaling cautious forecasting across most agencies. While pipelines remain active, conversion timelines have lengthened, and upsell opportunities are fewer. This continues a three-quarter drift down from late-2024 peaks.

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Optimism for Next 6 Months: Weakened Confidence

We asked agencies: How optimistic are you about the opportunities in ecommerce for the next 6 months?. We then compared the results with prior surveys.

Optimism dropped to 5.91, down from 7.43 a year ago. This aligns with ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and slower ecommerce growth rates in mature markets. Optimism has trended lower through 2025, consistent with tighter budgets and longer approvals.

"Conversation-driven commerce is set to be one of the most transformative shifts in how people discover and buy from brands. With Shopify product feeds now integrating directly into ChatGPT, shopping becomes an interactive dialogue, personal, seamless, and immediate. At Medito, we’re helping brands prepare for this shift by creating the strategies and experiences that make this new channel a real growth driver."

Olivier Lambret, founder & CEO at Medito.

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Interpretation for Agencies: What Does It Means for You?

• Higher price sensitivity = harder conversions: Agencies face more objections around pricing and must lead with proof of ROI.
• Efficiency over expansion: Clients want measurable outcomes and cost predictability.
• Shorter commitments: Retainers are shifting toward modular or milestone-based scopes.
• ROI narratives matter: Agencies that tie services to revenue, margin, or customer acquisition metrics have an advantage.
• Specialization continues to pay off: Niche expertise remains in demand even amid spending restraint.

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Takeaway

Agencies entered Q3 in a market that rewards caution, not risk. Stability in app spend and outsourcing demand hint at a floor in the decline, but optimism remains muted. Rising price sensitivity underscores the need for stronger value communication. 

For agencies, success in Q4 will come from demonstrating tangible ROI, offering flexible engagement models, and positioning as strategic growth partners rather than tactical vendors.