Ecommerce Agency Confidence Index: May 2025 Edition

The Ecommerce Agency Confidence Index (EACI) climbed to 224 in May 2025, a 3.7 percent rebound from April’s 12-month low of 216. While the gain breaks a three-month skid, it still leaves sentiment 7 percent below May 2024 (241) and well shy of last November’s post-pandemic high of 283.

On paper that change is small, yet conversations with agencies reveal a deeper shift: brands are no longer firefighting. They’re settling into a “prove it or lose it” mindset, holding budgets steady, demanding tighter ROI, and pruning tool stacks with surgical care rather than a machete. In other words, the industry isn’t sprinting ahead, but it has stopped sliding backward.

“Our clients are sharpening their focus on growth, investing smartly despite market shifts. Agencies will be key partners in driving ecommerce success in the months ahead.”
Ahmed Elghobashy, CEO, Simplix Innovations

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May 2025: treading water, scanning the horizon

Between 27 May and 4 June we asked agencies how their merchant clients were feeling. The backdrop was hardly calm: fresh UK figures showed ad spend falling for the first time in four years, while another volley of U.S. tariff headlines rattled supply-chain planners. Even so, respondents described a market that feels balanced on a knife-edge rather than plunging off a cliff, ready to pivot the moment external conditions stabilize.

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1. Marketing Budgets: Flat is the new up

A striking two-thirds of answers clustered at “5”, the exact middle of our 0–10 scale. Agencies say brands that slashed spend earlier in the year have now found their floor, and a few are tip-toeing back toward growth initiatives. Yet there’s little appetite for big gambles; every extra dollar demands a near-term payback.

Olivier Lambret of Medito Digital sums up the mood:

“As a Shopify agency, we’re seeing a clear shift in how brands approach their budgets in 2025. With UK marketing spend declining for the first time in 4 years , brands are prioritising proven value over experimental innovation. Economic uncertainty and global trade tensions are prompting a focus on consolidation and efficiency. In this climate, agencies must demonstrate tangible ROI and become indispensable partners, not just creative vendors.”

Another perspective from Jess Grossman, Founder & CEO, In Social, a Shopify Plus agency:

“With my In Social team starting to plan for our clients’ BFCM events (yes, we’re already starting!), budgets are top of mind and focus in all of our conversations - both internally and with our clients. While the conversations have just begun, many brands are looking at their financial plans and shifting budget to the holiday season. 

Yes, they are shifting budgets into Q4, to “save” spend for the holiday season instead of adding to it, as typically happens. This is a massive change from the last few years, and a clear indication that brands, while still hopeful for what is to come during the biggest buying period of the year, are hedging their bets against what they anticipate will be a slow summer. As we finish up planning and strategy for the BFCM season and present our final budgets for Q4, we should get a clearer picture of what should be an interesting winter.” 

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2. Ecommerce App Spend: Pruning, not chopping

May’s curve forms a sharp peak at exactly the middle, almost 60 % sat on “5.” That tells us merchants have completed the post-holiday app detox: the non-negotiables remain, vanity tools are gone, and the budget line is frozen until revenue climbs.

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3. Price Sensitivity: Nerves edge upward

The bell curve migrated one notch higher, swelling at 7–8. Agencies report longer sales cycles and tougher procurement teams: prospects still sign but expect concrete ROI dashboards almost immediately. Paolo Vidali of Hidden Gears warns that tariff uncertainty amplifies the caution:

“Merchants continue to be challenged by see-sawing tariff news which makes forecasting tenuous, and will ultimately endanger Q4 results.”

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4. In-House vs. Outsource: Hybrid is king

Responses leveled at 5, mirroring April but dipping below the YTD average of 6. Smaller merchants are rebuilding internal skill sets after last year’s layoffs, while larger brands deliberately diversify, keeping core functions inside yet leaning on agencies for channel-specific pushes. Stefan Chiriacescu captures the dichotomy:

“We’re seeing smaller businesses looking to consolidate services in-house, while medium and large companies are increasingly turning to agencies for outsourced support. It feels like everyone is bracing for maximum flexibility in the months ahead.”

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5. Six-Month Revenue Outlook: Tempered optimism

Half of agencies pegged near-term growth at 6 / 10: modest yet positive. Fewer votes in the 8-to-9 range nudged the mean slightly downward, suggesting that runaway growth stories feel less plausible than they did a quarter ago. Jody Edgar, founder of Sunbowl, attributes the hesitation to policy whiplash:

“The words of the year are wait and see. The unbelievable shortsightedness of the Trump administration’s Tariff threats has caused many business owners we work with to pause plans until they know more. Unfortunately, because there isn’t a plan, that is likely never going to come. This has a striking resemblance to the first year of Covid, which likely means layoffs for many people and this time there isn’t a government stimulus check.”

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6. Overall Optimism: Resilient, if bruised

The optimism curve barely budged from April’s shape, anchored at 6–7. A small but vocal minority leapt all the way to 10, betting that supply-chain shocks and ad-cost spikes will actually clear the field for agile upstarts. Ash Ome of MOTIF sees fertile soil:

“The next six months in ecommerce are bursting with potential. With consumer habits evolving rapidly and infrastructure becoming more accessible, it’s the perfect moment for emerging brands to gain traction. We’re already seeing founders thrive when they have the right guidance, community, and systems behind them and that kind of support is quietly shaping the next wave of eCommerce success.”

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What this means for agencies

May’s data paints a picture of equilibrium. Budgets, tech stacks, and hiring models have found short-term stability, but the bar for performance has never been higher. To win in this climate, agencies must:

1. Quantify impact first, creativity second. Storytelling still matters, but CFO-friendly metrics close deals.
   
   
2. Design for modularity. Offer campaign “building blocks” clients can scale up or down without red tape.
   
   
3. Stay tariff-literate. Trade policy now dictates everything from inventory buys to paid-media timing, your strategic value rises if you can translate geopolitical noise into marketing action.
   
   

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